Category: Financial Advice

Today I signed up with the HM land registry to monitor our property to make sure nothing is happening without us knowing.

Finanical advice.

We are entering a higher risk phase of the equity rally, with global equites having rallied 89% off their March 2020 low, and are now 23% above the pre-COVID peak. Valuation metrics are elevated and equity sentiment is bullish. Globalisation headwinds are mounting, inflation pressures are rising, taxes are about to go up, and regulation is set to become more burdensome for corporations. Against that backdrop, there is not a lot of wiggle room for markets if something goes wrong, either an unanticipated shock or otherwise.

Nevertheless, the global economy is still in the early phases of a reopening that is very likely to see strong job growth. Households are flush with savings, and there is no prospect of rate hikes anytime soon. Almost every cycle, a meaningful growth slowdown is preceded by Fed rate hikes, with forecasts for the first rate hike predicting this will not happen through 2023. In an environment of strong economic growth, it is likely that the corporate profits continue to move higher, and given how tightly linked profits are to equity market performance, that bodes well for the equity outlook. As such we expect to see further equity market upside.

The key details of this rebalance are as follows:

We maintain conviction on our current views on asset allocation and funds selection, and as such no additional tactical changes were implemented this month.
Overall our Asset Allocation Committee continue to maintain an overweight equity position, with a modest preference for UK equities, emerging markets and Europe.

The markets quartley review.

The last year is already fading quickly into the rear-view mirror and, as new life blooms around us, our thoughts are shifting to the year ahead rather than the long and hard winter behind us. So, too, have stock exchanges cast off the gloom of a seemingly endless series of lockdowns.

How are things at the moment?

You may be familiar with the Fear & Greed indicator, produced by CNN Money. This starts with the basic premise that the major factors driving short term moves in share prices are the two most basic of human emotions – fear and greed. When investors are fearful, they will tend to sell – often irrationally – while after a period of strong gains, investors can often become irrationally greedy, paying scant attention to prices, leading to potentially overextended stock market levels. Both sit at extremes of behaviour and the purpose of the dial is, by looking at a number of different indicators, to come up with an indicator of where we sit at present.

The current level shows markets are feeling optimistic, but not necessarily excessively so. Those with longer memories and harder nerves might remember that last March, at the peak of the pandemic, the dial sat in single figures, highlighting the complete collapse of confidence that shares suffered. Since that period, however, stocks have rallied extremely sharply, with many markets hitting multiyear high levels.

Just checking in regarding my portfolio

Global equity markets are having the odd weak day, over recent weeks, as investors worry about rising Covid numbers in certain parts of the world (India), earnings not meeting analyst estimates (Netflix) and general market valuations being high.

I am certainly watching these market movements and fully apricate that we are late in the cycle but I remain unconvinced that we are on a precipice of a significant correction. The reason for maintaining this optimism is, Interest rates are low and will be kept there for some time to come, stimulus measures are still be pumped into markets, and corporate figures, form the US, are on balance still comfortably beating estimates therefore justifying the higher valuations.

This environment remains positive for equity investing, but I do remain watchful.

Portfolio update

I am delighted to confirm that yesterday we completed March’s monthly rebalance for all 14 MPS portfolios across our active and passive ranges.

Backdrop to this month’s tactical rebalance: Within the Global economy, there are signs that a rotation is starting to play out from growth to value. Equity markets rose this month but other major asset classes were down for the month of February. Both US and UK equities performed well but emerging markets fell. Being underweight bonds and overweight UK Equities was positive over the month

The key details of this rebalance are as follows:

We have reduced the allocation to North American equities which has exposure to growth stocks that are sensitive to rising bond yields.
We have increased the allocation to Japan where the exposure is more pro-cyclical.
Overall our Asset Allocation Committee continue to maintain an overweight equity position, based on the medium-term outlook, we believe equities can grind out further gains over the next 12-18 months.
The next planned re-balance date will be 12 April 2021.
In the US, a better-than-expected jobs report boosted the Dow and S&P 500, whereas the Nasdaq fell amid another sell-off in technology stocks. The FTSE 100 was the best performer, rising by 2.3% after the budget promised further fiscal support and revealed encouraging economic data

Had a chat with my market man as there was a lot going on about short selling this week, thankfully nothing came of it, though it was the first time that my pension portfolio had lost in a week. It had to happen at some point.